It Does Not Exist, If We Say So

There is no currency war stemming from all the global quantitative easing, proclaims The Economist.  And if there was, it wouldn’t be bad.  The Economist’s Free Exchange columnist has written: “QE’s impact on its trading partners may be positive or negative; it depends on a country’s trade intensity, the substitutability between its and its competitors’ products, and how sensitive domestic demand is to lower rates. The point is that this is not a zero sum game; QE raises a country’s GDP by more than any improvement in the trade balance.

Writing in the Financial Times, BlackRock Vice Chairman Phillip Hildebrand argued “there is no such thing as a currency war.”  The former chairman of the Swiss National Bank wrote: “The monetary policy battles that have been fought and continue to be fought in so many economies are domestic ones.  They are fights against weak demand, high unemployment and deflationary pressures.  A greater danger to the world economy would in fact arise if central banks did not engage in these internal battles.”

Then why, one wonders, is the Group of Seven trying so hard to pretend there isn’t one or prevent one from growing. Meeting in London in mid-February, the G-7 published a statement: “We reaffirm that our fiscal and monetary policies have been and will remain oriented towards meeting our respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments, and that we will not target exchange rates.” The markets, reported the Financial Times, were “roiled” in the face of such reassurance. Apparently, the markets believe there is gambling going on in the casino.

It seems strange that some financial analysts should go to such lengths to proclaim that there is no gambling gone on in the casino.  Writing earlier in the Financial Times, Chile Finance Minister Felipe Larrain took a very different tact: “The surge of quantitative easy around the world should be a reason to worry for many emerging economies....Developed countries are acting to support their economies, but it is the emerging markets that have absorbed the bulk of the severe currency appreciation that follows every round of QE – and in particular those countries committed to flexible exchange rate regimes and open markets. This is particularly true in a world where China continues to manage its exchange rates.”

Whatever analysts call it and however they choose to suggest that it is an isolated case, the fall of the yen in recent months is clearly designed to be the foundation of Japan’s recovery from economic stagnation.  Even the Financial Times’ Martin Wolf called it “a beggar-my-neighbour devaluation.”  He added that “the policy will encourage more aggressive monetary policy elsewhere, which should be helpful to the world economy, if anything.”

Apparently, French President Francois Hollande has not gotten the message regarding the lack of a currency war as the value of the euro has appreciated.  “The euro should not fluctuate according to the mood of the markets,” Hollande told the European Parliament on February 5.  “A monetary zone must have an exchange rate policy. If not, it will be subjected to an exchange rate that does not reflect the real state of the economy.”

The temptation is to believe that central bank tinkerers can magically set the right exchange rates without other central bankers taking countervailing actions.  In advance of the G-20 meeting in Moscow, the Independent’s Russell Lynch reported: “IMF chief Christine Lagarde and Russia's deputy finance minister Sergei Storchak also denied the existence of currency wars, labelling recent swings in the yen as ‘market reaction to exclusively internal decision making.’” It sounds like the finance chiefs have decided to deny the obvious in hopes that the obvious will disappear.

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The Most Important Thing Holding Up the US Dollar

by Ron Paul

Today’s economic conditions reflect a fiat monetary system held together by many tricks and luck over the past 40 years. The world has been awash in paper money since removal of the last vestige of the gold standard by Richard Nixon when he buried the Bretton Woods agreement — the gold exchange standard — on August 15, 1971.

Since then we’ve been on a worldwide paper dollar standard. Quite possibly we are seeing the beginning of the end of that system. If so, tough times are ahead for the United States and the world economy.

Yellen’s Missing Jobs

March 31, 2014

The new Federal Reserve chairman, Janet Yellen, gave a policy speech today at Chicago, where, in a startling gesture, she mentioned three working individuals by name — Jermaine Brownlee, Vicki Lira, and Doreen Poole. They lost their jobs the Great Recession and have been struggling ever since. It was a refreshing, even affecting demarche by Mrs. Yellen, who has made a return to full employment a public priority. She underscored her sincerity by telephoning Mr. Brownlee and Ms. Lira and Ms. Poole before delivering her speech.

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The Rueffian SynthesisJohn D. Mueller

Publisher's Note: Originally released in June/July of 1991, this detailed report discusses Jacques Rueff's economic theories and applies them to modern economic events.

By John D. Mueller

Who Was Jacques Rueff?

... Trained in science and mathematics at the Ecole Polytechnique, Rueff devoted his first theoretical work to showing that the same scientific method applies to “moral” or “social” sciences like economics as to the physical sciences (Des Sciences Physiques aux Sciences Morales, 1922). In both cases, he pointed out, individual acts can be “indeterminate,” but the pattern of large numbers of individual acts can be predicted as a matter of probability. And so in economics no less than physics, as he later wrote, “A scientific theory is considered correct only if it makes forecasting possible.”

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Excerpts From:


by Lewis E. Lehrman

"Forerunners of man lived upon the planet several million years ago. But the unique, modern, social order of man – civilization – emerged only four to five thousand years ago. Historical and archaeological evidence suggests that the institution of money evolved coterminously with civilization. From the standpoint of the 100,000-year history of Homo sapiens, civilization and money are but young and fragile reeds. Today their very existence is threatened by financial disorder."

Learn More

 

Turkey’s Cut-rate Expectations

Kathleen Packard  |  Apr 18, 2014
There is a lot of bad behavior in the global political and monetary world. Much of it comes in countries that should know better. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) easily won municipal electons in Turkey but the party’s candidates won far short of the nation’s votes. The Wall...
Hostility toward gold has a long pedigree.  19th century depiction of Pliny the Elder courtesy of the Library of Congress Gaius Plinius Secundus, commonly known as Pliny the Elder, in his The Natural History, Book 33, section 3, writes: Would that gold could have been banished for ever from the earth, accursed by...
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Jacques Rueff, a key figure in European economic circles from the 1930s until the 1970s, was, first and foremost, an...
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Jan 01, 1996
Key Monetary Writings
Lawrence H. White

Monetary Nationalism Reconsidered

The rational choice would seem to lie between either a system of “free banking,” which not only gives all...
VIEW KEY MONETARY WRITINGS
 
Prosperity Through Gold
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The Gold Standard Now
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In Memoriam
Professor Jacques Rueff
(1896-1978)

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