"The gold standard had its advantages, no doubt." -- Niall Ferguson

"The gold standard had its advantages, no doubt."

Niall Ferguson is a brand name scholar both for quality and well justified celebrity.   He's bi-coastal and bi-oceanic -- with appointments at Harvard, the Hoover Institution and Oxford.   He writes books people buy and articles people read.  He has a European outlook on American problems and an American outlook on European problems.

Niall

From PBS's Ascent of Money


In his latest Newsweek column, "The Fed's Critics Are Wrong," Ferguson writes: "In normal times it would be legitimate to worry about the consequences of money printing and outsize debts. But history tells us these are anything but normal times."  Ferguson understands history and economics much better than most commentators.  In his thoughtful and erudite The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, Penguin Books, 2008, p. 59 (also an International Emmy award winning BBC documentary):

"In 1924 John Maynard Keynes famously dismissed the gold standard as a 'barbarous relic'.  But the liberation of bank-created money from a precious metal anchor happened slowly.  The gold standard had its advantages, no doubt.  Exchange rate stability made for predictable pricing in trade and reduced transaction costs, while the long-run stability of prices acted as an anchor for inflation expectations.   Being on gold may also have reduced the costs of borrowing by committing governments to pursue prudent fiscal and monetary policies.  The difficulty of pegging currencies to a single commodity based standard, or indeed to one another, is that policymakers are then forced to choose between free capital movements and an independent national monetary policy.  They cannot have both.  A currency peg can mean higher volatility in short-term interest rates, as the central bank seeks to keep the price of its money steady in terms of the peg.  It can mean deflation, if the supply of the peg is constrained (as the supply of gold was relative to the demand for it in the 1870s and 1880s).  And it can transmit financial crises (as happened throughout the restored gold standard after 1929).  By contrast, a system of money based primarily on bank deposits and floating exchange rates is freed from these constraints.  The gold standard was a long time dying, but there were few mourners when the last meaningful vestige of it was removed on 15 August, 1971, the day that President Nixon closed the so-called gold 'window' through which, under certain restricted circumstances, dollars could still be exchanged for gold.  From that day onward, the centuries-old link between money and precious metals was broken." 

Of course, some of these insights echo, in important ways, those of economics Nobel laureate Robert Mundell.  According to a September, 2006 article in the IMF's Finance and Development magazine entitled "Ahead of His Time," by Laura Wallace,

Mundell considers his major breakthrough to be his 1960 journal article that introduced a model of an economy dominated by two markets: one for goods and services and one for foreign exchange. Before that, he says, there weren't any models of what today we call international macroeconomics. Many spin-offs followed, including the Mundell-Fleming framework (also named after his IMF colleague, Marcus Fleming, a British citizen, who had been working along similar lines independently). The model shows that under a floating rate and perfect capital mobility, monetary policy becomes powerful, and fiscal policy powerless, in affecting output, whereas the opposite is true when the exchange rate is fixed. It also shows that if a country has a fixed exchange rate, it cannot in the long run have an independent monetary policy, and that if it has an independent monetary policy, it cannot have fixed exchange rates. This result holds whether or not there is capital mobility. Indeed, he considers that the "impossible trinity," which implies that a country can have a fixed exchange rate and an independent monetary policy if it also has capital controls, is erroneous. And making matters worse, in his view, the trinity's "irrelevant focus on capital movements has been the spurious raison d'etre of the shift in the 1970s to flexible exchange rates."

And also, one wishes to see more scholars follow Prof. Ben Bernanke in teasing out the critical distinction between the classical gold standard and its "grotesque caricature" (in the words of Rueff), the gold-exchange standard: the true culprit behind the crisis of 1929.

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The Most Important Thing Holding Up the US Dollar

by Ron Paul

Today’s economic conditions reflect a fiat monetary system held together by many tricks and luck over the past 40 years. The world has been awash in paper money since removal of the last vestige of the gold standard by Richard Nixon when he buried the Bretton Woods agreement — the gold exchange standard — on August 15, 1971.

Since then we’ve been on a worldwide paper dollar standard. Quite possibly we are seeing the beginning of the end of that system. If so, tough times are ahead for the United States and the world economy.

Yellen’s Missing Jobs

March 31, 2014

The new Federal Reserve chairman, Janet Yellen, gave a policy speech today at Chicago, where, in a startling gesture, she mentioned three working individuals by name — Jermaine Brownlee, Vicki Lira, and Doreen Poole. They lost their jobs the Great Recession and have been struggling ever since. It was a refreshing, even affecting demarche by Mrs. Yellen, who has made a return to full employment a public priority. She underscored her sincerity by telephoning Mr. Brownlee and Ms. Lira and Ms. Poole before delivering her speech.

Read More

 


The Rueffian SynthesisJohn D. Mueller

Publisher's Note: Originally released in June/July of 1991, this detailed report discusses Jacques Rueff's economic theories and applies them to modern economic events.

By John D. Mueller

Who Was Jacques Rueff?

... Trained in science and mathematics at the Ecole Polytechnique, Rueff devoted his first theoretical work to showing that the same scientific method applies to “moral” or “social” sciences like economics as to the physical sciences (Des Sciences Physiques aux Sciences Morales, 1922). In both cases, he pointed out, individual acts can be “indeterminate,” but the pattern of large numbers of individual acts can be predicted as a matter of probability. And so in economics no less than physics, as he later wrote, “A scientific theory is considered correct only if it makes forecasting possible.”

Read More

Excerpts From:


by Lewis E. Lehrman

"Forerunners of man lived upon the planet several million years ago. But the unique, modern, social order of man – civilization – emerged only four to five thousand years ago. Historical and archaeological evidence suggests that the institution of money evolved coterminously with civilization. From the standpoint of the 100,000-year history of Homo sapiens, civilization and money are but young and fragile reeds. Today their very existence is threatened by financial disorder."

Learn More

 

Turkey’s Cut-rate Expectations

Kathleen Packard  |  Apr 18, 2014
There is a lot of bad behavior in the global political and monetary world. Much of it comes in countries that should know better. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) easily won municipal electons in Turkey but the party’s candidates won far short of the nation’s votes. The Wall...
Hostility toward gold has a long pedigree.  19th century depiction of Pliny the Elder courtesy of the Library of Congress Gaius Plinius Secundus, commonly known as Pliny the Elder, in his The Natural History, Book 33, section 3, writes: Would that gold could have been banished for ever from the earth, accursed by...
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Jacques Rueff, a key figure in European economic circles from the 1930s until the 1970s, was, first and foremost, an...
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Feb 09, 2001
Key Monetary Writings
Lewis E. Lehrman and John D. Mueller

What the Fed's Monetary «Experiment» Proved

The Fed's "expectations" theory. Under Chairman Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve has subscribed to a widely held but erroneous...
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Prosperity Through Gold
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